Forecast
Tuesday the 4th WNW swell will increase with early AM sessions running head high to a couple feet overhead at west facing breaks, DOH by noon or so. By evening, west facing breaks could see size running 11-13 feet on the face. This swell will inevitably increase the risk of rip currents, especially during the outgoing tides. Alongshore currents are also a concern. Caution is strongly advised. As for winds, it looks like some northerly winds will pick up along the coast, but should stay below 14 mph in most spots.
Wednesday the 5th gets even bigger big. According to this morning's model run, breaks that can work a 270-degree angle could see face heights reach 15-20 feet with periods super long (for a NW'er) at 17-19 seconds. Please note that once this swell fills in, its long periods will no doubt make for disparity in size between breaks of varying bathymetry and westerly exposure. Breaks with steeper bathymetry that shoal well and refract the westerly energy ideally—especially those with excellent westerly exposure—will see bigger sets than the slower sloped, longboard-type breaks.
Additionally, this swell's long periods can produce deceiving lulls at times. Once this swell fills in, many waves may look surfable, while every now and then bigger waves could roll through. Adequate observation prior to a paddle-out is warranted and highly advised. And as mentioned previously, this swell will inevitably increase the risk of rip currents, especially during the outgoing tides. Alongshore currents are also a major concern.
Needless to say, this swell will not be for the inexperienced. Between the back- and board-breaking size, inevitable rip currents, alongshore currents, and likely incessant nature of this swell, it may be a good day to watch from shore. Know your limits, play it safe, and when it doubt, just stay out.
As for tide and wind on Wednesday, it looks like northerly winds will pick up once again, but should remain below 15 mph for most spots. The tide though will be extremely high around dawn, receding throughout the morning, which will increase the risk of rip currents then.
Wednesday the 5th gets even bigger big. According to this morning's model run, breaks that can work a 270-degree angle could see face heights reach 15-20 feet with periods super long (for a NW'er) at 17-19 seconds. Please note that once this swell fills in, its long periods will no doubt make for disparity in size between breaks of varying bathymetry and westerly exposure. Breaks with steeper bathymetry that shoal well and refract the westerly energy ideally—especially those with excellent westerly exposure—will see bigger sets than the slower sloped, longboard-type breaks.
Additionally, this swell's long periods can produce deceiving lulls at times. Once this swell fills in, many waves may look surfable, while every now and then bigger waves could roll through. Adequate observation prior to a paddle-out is warranted and highly advised. And as mentioned previously, this swell will inevitably increase the risk of rip currents, especially during the outgoing tides. Alongshore currents are also a major concern.
Needless to say, this swell will not be for the inexperienced. Between the back- and board-breaking size, inevitable rip currents, alongshore currents, and likely incessant nature of this swell, it may be a good day to watch from shore. Know your limits, play it safe, and when it doubt, just stay out.
As for tide and wind on Wednesday, it looks like northerly winds will pick up once again, but should remain below 15 mph for most spots. The tide though will be extremely high around dawn, receding throughout the morning, which will increase the risk of rip currents then.
posted by Botanist at 6:32 AM
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