...This week will see El Niño driven surf, the likes of which we may not have seen since 1998, although conditions are looking less than favorable and hazards will abound. This morning, the buoys are showing the swell arriving, with most buoys in NCal running 20-22 feet with 18+ second periods. Harvest Platform (near Pt. Conception) reported 25-foot seas. San Nicholas Island, sitting well off the coast of SoCal, was reporting 21 foot seas this morning as well. Buoys closer to the SoCal coast though have yet to feel the brunt of the incoming swell, but were hovering around 7 feet. This swell will fill in throughout the day in SoCal, making full impact on Wednesday the 20th. Although this is from a system that formed in the Western Pacific, this is not what will bring us the bulk of the swell. Instead, the jetstream is draped over our area, driving this storm towards SoCal and intensifying it within just 1000 or so miles of the coast. A similar scenario should play out for more bursts of swell hitting us through Saturday morning: each should form the bulk of their strength within just 1000 miles of the coast, and come in from a near direct westerly angle of 270-280°. This activity should subside Sunday as high pressure moving into the region pushes the jetstream to the north, and swell activity diminishes as well. Here's how the day-to-day is breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 20th should be the full impact day for this particular swell. Energy should come in from 270° with 16- to 18-second periods. Most west facing breaks should see average sets DOH+, with some waves running 15 feet on the face. Rogue waves are possible as well. Caution is strongly advised.
Thursday the 21st should see the next swath of westerly swell. This could produce 15-foot face heights along west facing breaks. Caution is strongly advised.
Friday the 22nd this swell could produce face heights 20+ feet along west facing beaches. Caution is strongly advised.
Saturday the 23rd this swell could peak in the early morning hours, producing 20-foot surf early, backing off though throughout the day.
Sunday the 24th, so far, is looking a bit smaller, perhaps DOH max...
(excerpt from Wetsand surf forecast)
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