Caution Is Strongly Advised!

The short range models continue to agree on that significant NW swell event this weekend, with ETA now slated for Sunday the 28th. Yesterday a system did peak near the Aleutians with about 25-foot seas. The 30h+ models though show this one reforming once passing through the Gulf, pumping up 25- to 30-foot seas when just hundreds of miles off the Oregon coast, then diving southeastward to center itself around the Central Coast of California, maintaining 20-foot seas when near Pt. Conception. This, by the way, is the same low mentioned in the weather section above that's to bring foul weather to the region Friday night into Saturday; thus, the reform on this is bad news as it has "stormy surf" written all over it. Having 20+ foot seas though so close to the California coast means very sizable surf, but given the conditions, this swell is looking hazardous. Nevertheless, we could see size maxing out at the standout west facing breaks in the TOH zone from this Sunday. Running the numbers today, based on the 60h+ models placing this fetch so close to SoCal, we'd see 270-280° swell with 16-second periods, with face heights that could exceed 15 feet at the best, well-exposed west facing breaks. Peak of this swell appears to be pre-dawn, so mid to late morning sessions could see less in the way of size. Weather should clear when this swell peaks, but with such stormy conditions the day before, conditions won't likely clean up all too well. And needless to say, myriad hazards are to be expected. Caution is strongly advised.

(excerpt from Wet Sand Forecast)